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Board Speculation
Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: I see a dump approaching, do you?
by
dragonvslinux
on 31/01/2020, 12:19:51 UTC
⭐ Merited by Lucius (1)
Yes I do, although there will probably be some disagreement over use of the word "dump." In the bigger picture, it will probably be viewed as a "pullback" or "correction" instead.

This is my general idea:



A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep.

Nice analysis, I agree the $8800 level is a likely area to pull back to and find strong support, and we don't need to correct that far either. Especially given it's only the smaller time-frames (4hr/Daily) that are suggesting we need to "cool off" (RSI for example), whereas the Weekly will signal a bearish to bullish trend change based on a plethora of different indicators (ex: MACD, Ihimoku, Hash) by the end of the week. Simply put, macro traders and investors will be signaled to buy dips, no matter how small they are.

Seeing recent TA looking for a pull-back early next month reminds me of my time-based analysis from last month of the next swing low between February 6th and 11th 2020, that is now telling me the correction might be a lot faster than most people are anticipating. At least based on the past 6 years of data, this time period has been a good (or safe) time to buy, based on a probability of 85%. Not as good as 90% probability of $7245 being the second best buying opportunity of 2019, but hey these high probability opportunities don't come around very often.


(Note: If you click play on this TA BLX is currently reading the BTC price as $0. Don't panic: Bitcoin didn't actually go to zero)

An orderly pull back to the 200 Day MA (around $8900) at a minimum is to be expected, and finding support from this key MA would be even more bullish (than being above $9K) in my opinion. Reaching $10K this week or not becomes less relevant right now. $8.8K and $8.5K* look like very reasonable levels of support, as does $8.2K VPVR support:



Either way, prices are looking very strong  Cool