It would be an interesting scenario indeed. The max pain scenario. Everybody gets excited about the halving and instead price drops like a rock creating a wave of despair.
I don't think that's the max pain scenario. Too many people are bearish. Too many are saying things like "the halving is already priced in." I've seen a bunch of people claiming the stock-to-flow model has failed too.
People sound just like they did in early 2016. Remember what happened 2 months before the 2016 halving? (Hint: the price doubled!)
Drawing a squeezing wedge on the linear chart on macro level is pretty meaningless in my opinion.
I didn't want to be the one to call that out, but yes. I don't know what he's thinking.
Elliott Wave is not that useful for trading cryptos IMO. Too many alternate wave counts.
This isn't specific to crypto. Multiple alternative wave counts are necessary when analyzing any instrument.