My take is that no one is actually interested in Bitcoin derivatives
No big dicks care about that. They don't care about anything other than dollars. Us little people think that way. The last thing on their mind is financial sovereignty. We'll see stuff like this take off when everything else does. I don't expect professional money to take the lead. They'll leach off the real people.
If Bakkt do throw in the towel within 3-4 years I'd be rather surprised. They have Circle as a timely warning. They've thrown in the towel just before whatever they abandoned exploded.