Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Martin Armstrong Discussion
by
s29
on 14/02/2020, 17:10:25 UTC
You people have soon written 360 pages of texts for several years now... I just came by and wrote a couple of replies.. and I'm the obsessed one lol Cheesy
His track record is pretty good. Just look at Dow, USD and also Gold. When everyone else was opposite.
Yes, Alexa is probably also pretty advanced... but can't write predictions by itself in long texts.

First of all, you talk like someone who discovered the internet yesterday.

Second of all, Armstrong's predictions have been quite horrible in the last years. Missed a 30% rally off the 2018-bottom on the Dow. Completely missed the Gold bottom in 2015, was looking for beneath $1000-levels. Horrible forecasts on interest rates "going up from the 2015 ECM point". Horrible forecast on the Real Estate market since the same 2015 ECM point. Horrible forecast so far about the collapse of the EU and the euro (euro has gone somewhat lower, but not even 1 country exited the euro). Horrible forecasts about the world economy going into the abyss into 2020. Even the EU didn't entered a recession in the last few years.

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When everyone else was opposite.

The Dow you mean? Most mainstream analysts on Wall Street are permabulls, so that's not true.

Longer term predictions about the Dow are not that difficult to make btw:

By the way, his Dow 40,000 and 65,000 prediction for 2024 and 2032 is actually not really difficult to make.

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Stock market historical returns is  generally considered   Dow Jones  Index (Djia)  average yealy  returns.Djia  average yearly return was 7.7539% without adjusting dividends and inflation from 1921 to 2018.

If you add 4 years of 7.75% compounded to the current Dow 29,000 you get Dow 39,090. Very close to the 40,000 level.

If you add 12 years of 7.75% compounded to the current Dow 29,000 you get Dow 71,024. Quite close to the 65,000 level.