Everytime Bitcoin price drops, there is always buying up for the price to reach a new high.
Everyone might be used to this pattern by buying the dips at every new high lows form without minding the risk with the hope of always bouncing back.
What will happen is that there will be a lot of people that will buy at every high intervals and could lead to a big market correction where people will be forced to sell at loss.
No one knows when this will happen , but the fact is people that bought high will get tired after several wait for the bounce back to happen which will lead to sell off to cut loss.
There has been more than two bounce back recently that lead to new price but now a trend line has been broken. This calls for a big caution. Market could go deeper or higher. Let's remember BTC has a mind of its own.
Trade safely .
No one knows when will be the peak of the market so it is our duty to not fall in this problem. If possible don't hold too much asset if you see that the price is continuing to goes down.
Your analysis is not bad but most of us wants to profit at any cost, so whether the bitcoin is very pricey we still bought because we think that it continue to increase. We have plenty of time to profit and there are very few times that we will lost if we will monitor the happenings in the market. Monitoring it daily is good if you can do it.