Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
TERA
on 26/02/2014, 14:26:13 UTC

You are comparing the demise of an tor drug market to the demise of one of the biggest exchanges with the biggest holdings?


looking at the seized btc stash from DPR I think it is a fair comparison
The 'silk road effect' has nothing to do with the stashes and I'm not sure if we even knew the size of the stash when it first happened. Here is the silk road effect:

1) Huge black swan event happens and something shuts down
2) Investors perceive that this accounted for XX% of all bitcoin business and the death will severely damage bitcoin.
3) Investors panic and sell everything.
4) Sneaky whales who have been lurking waiting for 'some black swan event' for months and months don't give a shit and start buying like crazy.
5) All the coins that were panic sold are suddenly accumulated, with no traders or shorts getting re-filled as they should have. There is a huge imbalance in the force.
6) Investors see the gigantic buying and think 'holy shit the whales are buying. things are as bad as they can possibly get and they are BUYING. This is BOTTOM. This has suddenly turned from bearish to extremely BULLISH'
7) Investors and traders race to rebuy their coins.
8 ) A massive short squeeze happens as shorts compete against traders to fill the void in the force, compounding the effect.
9) a full recovery is completed as if nothing happened.
9) Prices CONTINUE to rally above the original point as investors who were holding off for a trend reversal are given renewed confidence and continue to pile in. The media exposure from the black swan event and the crash helps also.