If analyzing the Bitcoin was that easy then everyone here would have become Bitcoin millionaire. I am not saying it is not possible to analyze, what I mean is that it is very hard to correctly analyze Bitcoin's movement because of its volatility.

What do I do?

Check historical data to understand the upward movement but not the downward. Check technical analysis to predict the downward movement.

None of them will give you an accurate picture but, it will prepare you to analyze the future movements of Bitcoin.