at that time still unsure whether bitcoin will boom or bust, how to analyzed the market from a different perspective ??
Use Technical and Fundamental analysis. Those tools are created for a reason, and analyzing those historical prices incurred in the past have an effect to its future price.
As Marvels Hydra Agent says
"The future is a digital book and can be evaluated based on people's past" this has something same with events and activities.
You can't. All we can do is to guess or speculate on what's going to happen. You could say that the price might go up due to(and in anticipation of) the upcoming halving in around 3 months, but will it go up? Maybe, maybe not. Pick your guess.
Speculation is the worst thing here. Most of other people speculate with a very impossible prices wil happened. Much better to study pattern than this IMO.