I agree with you that it won't go high as 100kusd on a snap after the halving. Dec2017 btc price surge won't happen again this year or the following year, expect 20k+ after 5 to 10 years.
and do you have any reason why you think that an 11 year long trend of rising in the same way (big percentages within short amount of time) is going to be changed this year and not just a small change a big change to small rise in a very long time?
because i don't see any reason at all for this trend to change. in fact i could see this trend become even stronger meaning much bigger rises in much shorter time frames like 1500% rise in a year instead of 1000% in 2 years.