You are characterising the recent pricing as being in line with the decline from ATH.  However there is a far better pattern that already played out and the 2019 high broke that trend, we already went through the scenario you are outlining and to rise from 3k this time last year has already refuted that old trend.    At worst now we revisit that old trend to check if that trend line holds weight or not but its not happened so far.
   It doesnt especially fit from what I see, lets first observe it failing to keep the rising lows since Dec 2018.  If that fails, we got some greater negative on that wider view you refer to.