I think price "can" drop to around $2,500 (based on September 2019 TA, so "ignoring" the past 6 months of price action). This would be based on another round of capitulationon breaking the $3,850 lows, the 2014 fractal as well as $6,200 holding as resistance, but otherwise would only give 10% chance of this at the moment (at best).

For me, it's an 80% chance that $3,850 is the new swing low. Problem is, if we break this, I find the likelihood of holding $3,200 lows as pretty low odds.