Hm?  Does not seem likely to be very long away at all... probably 6-9 months in a worser-case scenario... and could be 1-2 months in a better case(but seemingly unlikely) scenario... some where between those two scenarios seem the most likely..

Your presumption of a kind of longer game of over a 18 months to 3 years before BTC gets back into challenging ATHs seem quite implausible, even though your theories do seem to have some chances, even though seemingly small.. and sure, your presumed timeline would:  1) largely challenge or even come close to negating the stock to flow model... 2) surely you are negating the four-year fractal model.. and 3) theoretically delay the happenings of the s-curve exponential adoption based on network/metcalfe effects model.

But, hey, each of us have our theories and our assignments of probabilities to outcomes.. We might need to call your BTC price predictions the Majormax model, even though it seems to be based on a kind of wishful-thinking and desire to negate the most convincing of current BTC price prediction models.. and it does not even have a decent name yet.. maybe we could call your BTC price prediction model the "Majormax's BTC is a mature asset model?"  Wat-chya think?.