Perhaps a good game would be for everyone to choose 2 prices with a 99% probability of containing the range for the next week, month, 3 months, year. It would help focus minds on reality, and probability.
I like that idea. Prince ranges with a self-described 99% confidence that the price will land somewhere between the lo and hi values.
I'll go first.
In 1 week (3/23):
$3,500 - $6,000In 1 month (4/16): $4,000 - $7,500
In 3 months (6/16): $4,500 - $8,000
In 1 year: (3/16/21): $8,000 - $30,000
Whoever gets the 1 week correct (price at noon UCT 3/23) with the lowest margin between the lo and hi wins 4 merits from me.*
*to be eligible for my merits, you have to have made a guess before I fall asleep tonight (in about 9-10 hours from now).
**shit, I just realized this is more like a 60% confidence, especially the year figures. oh well, balls to the wall, the penalty for being wrong is pretty non-existent.