Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: CoronaVirus USA - Open by easter?
by
exstasie
on 25/03/2020, 09:51:07 UTC
Despite what you believe politically, President Trump made a statement "showing hope" to have the USA "open by easter".

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/politics/trump-easter-economy-coronavirus/index.html

Do you think this is possible?

He's speaking prematurely and is just trying to quell panic, but there are some signs this will be over quicker than we thought. Not because the corona virus stops spreading, but because it's so infectious that most people have already been exposed.

An Oxford study suggests half the UK population already has or had the corona virus: https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/oxford-study-coronavirus-may-have-infected-half-of-u-k.html

While that may sound bad initially, what it really means is this:

Quote
If this modeling is confirmed in follow-up studies, that would mean that fewer than .01 percent of those infected require hospital treatment, with a majority showing very minor symptoms, or none at all.

So it may turn out the corona virus is insanely infectious but also has an extremely low mortality rate, and even a low rate of expressing symptoms at all. If this model is correct, we won't flatten the curve by stopping the spread through containment. The curve will flatten because the virus will run out people to infect.

If other studies confirm these findings in the coming weeks, it will be a real game changer.