If we find 3 blocks in 7 days, that's avg of 3/7 blocks per day and if assume Poisson process, we have the following:
blocks found / probability
0 / 0.6514
1 / 0.2792
2 / 0.0598
3 / 0.0085
4 / 0.0001+
Going back all the way to mid Dec, I cannot find any 24 hour period where we have >3 blocks.
Almost.
We need to use the cumulative distribution function.
Then, assuming a rate of 3/7 blocks found per day, we get:
Chance of finding more than 0 blocks per day: 34.856094 %
Chance of finding more than 1 block per day: 6.937277 %
Chance of finding more than 2 blocks per day: 0.954674 %
Chance of finding more than 3 blocks per day: 0.100016 %This is not just variance.
(In python:
import scipy.stats
1. - scipy.stats.distributions.poisson.cdf(blocks_per_day_new, blocks_per_day_old))