The United States will be in a recession. The question is, will this be a 1987 type of recession or a 2008/2009 type of recession.
North Dakota and Texas won't have oil jobs anymore with how low the price is now.
Unemployment insurance filings have got up 200-1000% within the last week for some states from the lock down.
Their is a 2 trillion dollar stimulus package but I'm not entirely sure how that will help for the most part. Involves giving everyone around 1,200 USD and 500 USD a child.
This definitely didn't help bitcoin or gold in the short term but mid-term as in 6 months to 12 months should.
China appears to actually be ahead in the stock market for the month of March compared to all the other nations.
The 2008-2009 crisis was actually a financial crisis. Starting and growing in the financial sector, then it spreads to the real sector because of the blocked access to finance. In contrast to 2008-2009, the coronavirus is a phenomenon in the real sector that is creeping into the financial sector. The impact of the global financial crisis in 2008 is very different from the impact of the coronavirus.
The 2008 global financial crisis was purely an economic phenomenon. The reason is the explosion of bad loans in the property sector (sub-prime mortgage) which turned out to involve many systemic institutions. So 2008 contagion came from financial institutions, especially from banks, capital markets because there was a sentiment which then influenced stability. Whereas Corona directly hits the real sector because it involves the problem of people who don't dare to do mobility, don't do activities, so that it affects the real sector, investment, manufacturing.
The biggest impact of the corona to the financial sector is through interest rates, exchange rates, non-performing loans (NPLs) or problem loans, psychological sentiments, and the state budget because the government needs to provide fiscal stimulus amid this economic pressure. What is happening now is the panic of all global financial market players and capital owners due to the rapid spread of the virus to various countries, this makes global investors release financial assets in various forms on global financial markets and a number of countries. Starting from stocks, bonds, and others. They sell it in the form of US dollar cash, so there is a strengthening of the US dollar on the financial market.
Whereas the recovery for the corona outbreak will not be as heavy as the 2008 crisis which took almost 7 years because the US only raised its benchmark interest rate at the end of 2015. Seeing from the pandemic in China it should be in 2021, the economy has accelerated again.