Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: How long this crisis will be?
by
jackg
on 30/03/2020, 02:19:15 UTC
Where I live, you can't even get tested if you have very obvious corona virus symptoms, so none of those people are being counted as "confirmed cases." Only high risk and severe (hospitalization required) cases are receiving tests. Those people are much more likely to die.

Yes this is true. Its why worldometer lists the number of recovered to be half the number that have it. Until then antibody tests just aren't worthwhile...

The only time you're tested in this country is if you begin to have severe difficulty breathing or are already dead... Its up to people themselves here to self isolate if they're at risk and for healthy people to social distance, for now... The government is busy building temporary hospitals and mortuaries and this will merely be a precaution as standard undertakers expect a fairly regular death rate.

The q4 stats for the NHS bed usage was at around 90% and I went into accident and emergency last year in the summer in one of the best resourced hospitals in the country and they all seemed extremely rushed... This seems like it'll be a huge problem unless they can source more people to help - once enough ventilators are sourced.

We're trying to minimise the curve while expecting enough healthy people to develop immunity to the virus to try to stop it spreading further. An additional risk that may or may not have been looked into is how well SARS-nCOV-2 can mutate and reinfect people that caught the first one but so far, outside of wuhan only one strain is known to have taken.

(death stats are put at about 1-2%, for the UK that's at least 1 nurse and 1 military officer per person). But data on ventilation use would be difficult to plot imo.