I think most likely the world population will need to develop
herd immunity to the Chinese coronavirus. I don't think it is realistic to stomp out the outbreak via quarantines which involves shutting down the world economy. I believe the up to 14 day incubation period is too long, and the chances of being contagious but only having mild or no symptoms is too high. A vaccine is a year away, at best, but there may be a way to treat cases for those who fall ill.
You are correct, we do not know how dangerous the virus actually is among the general population, but we do know it is very contagious and contagious enough that absent preventative measures, the majority of the population will contract the Chinese virus. It takes
at least 60% of the population to have immunity in order for herd immunity to develop. If the number of unknown cases is 95% of total cases, the mortality rate in the US drops to 0.07%. If we can figure out who is most likely to have zero or very mild symptoms, and take steps for this group of people to get infected while protecting the rest of the population, this number may go down if the predictions are correct.
The problem with this is people can't develop herd immunity if they are under lockdown by themselves. So what this seems like is that the virus is going to be transmitted to people slowly, and those that get it won't be able to pass it on to anyone else because they would be put under lockdown by then. Which means that herd immunity would take several months to develop, even for 60% of any random group you sample.
And even with the lockdown in place, I think only a small fraction of the world's population, since this is a pandemic now, have been exposed to the virus so far, whether or not they tested positive of it later.
If the economy stays closed for too long, the economy will be destroyed, and millions of people will possibly be stuck in poverty. This in itself could result in a lot of additional suffering, negative medial outcomes, and death.
Well since many more people are now talking about the US economy in relation to the lockdown, how many months do you think it will last closed like this? The products and services made by the now-laid off jobs, are definitely going to be less available in the foreseeable future. Reminds me of the massive Disneyland layoff recently. I think China's slowly beginning to reopen the jobs that were once closed, so this pause only lasted for a few months for them.