Two occurrences is considered a coincidence. 3+ is where we can identify patterns.

My mid-long term outlook would therefore be further consolidation within the trading range of 100 & 200 Week MAs until at least the halving. While it's possible price could break-out after the havling, given the current global financial situation and the need for many to raise fiat reserves, I believe the resistance level will remain as strong support for a few more months (until summer time), while at the same time the 200 Week MA (currently around $5,350) will additionally act as strong support (stronger than the resistance), that will ultimately form the new support base, confirming $3,800 as the swing low, providing the confidence for further upside for Q3 and Q4.