Are you suggesting that people will rush to buy Bitcoin with their government aid money? No way, we're in the middle of a crisis, they will be buying food, medicines and toilet paper. I think it's wrong to think that an average Bitcoin investor is an addict who throws all available cash into Bitcoin, most people just buy coins once or a few times and then hodl them for longer periods of time.

Also, you can't make any good predictions with this sort of fundamental analysis, time has proven that Bitcoin is too volatile for it to be accurate, even if the reasoning is solid, which is not the case here.