I'm also afraid to tell you that 'luck' does not exist - you can calculate probability but not luck (unless someone could post the calculation for the likelihood of luck existing)...
'Luck' exists, silly! If you earned more than expected, you've had good 'luck'. If you earned less than expected, you had bad 'luck'.
Of course luck doesn't exist it is a convenient word to cover bad judgement, calculations or events we choose not to understand or have control of.
If you
expect to earn X and you earn Y then a force has acted upon X to move its value to Y - an event, not luck.
Either way your expectation/calculation was wrong.
That calls for an "Argh". You seem to have some math knowledge, but then you confound "expectation" in a mathematical sense, with "expectation" in some other sense.
Your expected income per difficulty 1 share is (Bitcoin reward per block) / (network difficulty). If you earn more than this per share, you've had good luck. Less than this is bad luck.
No confusion - Expectation has to be based on some form of calculation applied to factors that you know or think you know.
Yes confusion.
I told you what the expectation / mean value of the reward for one difficulty 1 equivalent share:
(Bitcoin reward per block) / (network difficulty)
That is quite calculable. If you think it's not, please explain why.
As per my previous statement - luck is a convenient word to cover bad judgement, bad calculations or events we choose not to understand or have control of. Which is Bitcoin luck do you think.
Your luck definition, in this context, is incorrect. Since at least the start of 2011, "luck" has been defined as number of difficulty 1 shares per round / difficulty (or the inverse, at some pools).