You think the performance of the last two halving cycles were anomalies. What do you base that off of pure speculation or intuition?
I can't speak personally for the first halving event, but in 2012, when almost 50% of all BTC had already been mined, I always wonder about how big the markets truly were, how distributed, how much the actual volume really was when you took away wash numbers and bots (who had to be super rife in those days). Price had to be a lot easier to manipulate then, so I always take those numbers with a pinch of salt.
Here's a piece of history: the miner, and his gear, that found the block to trigger the first halving event;) :
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=168342.0