you can't calculate odds without a certain factor to hold on to. In poker you have a limited choice of cards (52), your own cards and later on the community card board. So in fact you calculate your odds against facts, namely the highest possible combination for you against the highest possible combination for your opponents. If you have a chance of 50% to win and you can win 2 times your stack you will play that hand.
What is your limited choice here? Gox dead to gox alive. Those odds would be 50% without more info.
Given the fact that we KNOW the cold wallets are still full and untouched, but we don't know if they can access them in the near future (again, 50%):
Chance for them to be alive and able to pay out: ? There are wayyy too many inputs there. you can't possibly even try to measure the odds.
only about your "limited choce here":
1. gox dead or alive: 50%; cumulative odds 50% (right this is truth)
2. you KNOW that cold wallets are untouched? i don´t think so... it is for sure not a fact, so: 50% here also; cumulative odds 25%
3. if this cold wallets are still full can they be accessed in near future: 50% (Truth); cumulative odds 12,5%
4. fact is that their software itself is so fucked up that nobody really knows are they even able to organize everything again: 50%; cumulative odds 6,25%
5. do we really know anything about facts? chance 1:4 (i just make it up myself, so only my opinion, so: max 25%; cumulative odds ca 1,56%
all single chances can vary but in the end i think there will be only those odds what everybody makes up for himself. it is nice to write about "facts" which are actually not a facts... so only speculations.
there are only two (three) facts:
1. gox was not able to make correct payouts already 2012.
2. gox closed their doors without giving us any informations.
(3. Karpeles ist just a asshole.)
everything else is just speculation. i am (personally) sure that considering those facts our chances to hear/get any other facts will be max 3%.
PS: you are a really conservative poker player.
