I believe bitcoin in the long run is going to do very well.

However, with the halving coming i do not see it initially increasing the value of bitcoin at all. Miners are barely breaking even at this point, and there is currently VERY BIG motivation for them to short bitcoin and then completely dump their share onto the market. If miners got together to do this they could potentially create a bit of a snowball if weak hands started to sell off.

So they short the bitcoin price. Dump their bitcoin. Price drops. They buy back in low buying even more than before as support builds.

If big mining pools do this in unison it could have a knock on affect and push bitcoin down to USD $3-3500.

I still have no clue what the actual result will be, it is all speculation. However if you are assuming BTC will pump after the halving, put in 20% of what you want to and if it drops buy more in steps if the price does continue to fall. In the long run bitcoin has a long way to go yet before it reaches saturation.

We are still in the dial-up era of internet for crypto. It is still very early days.

Cheers and good luck.