Ninjastic
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Board Speculation
Re: Mt. Gox has filed for bankruptcy protection
by
Ibian
on 28/02/2014, 13:26:40 UTC
Quote from: V2Rocket on February 28, 2014, 01:18:53 PM
Quote from: Ibian on February 28, 2014, 01:15:32 PM
Quote from: V2Rocket on February 28, 2014, 01:12:20 PM
Quote from: Ibian on February 28, 2014, 01:08:26 PM
Quote from: V2Rocket on February 28, 2014, 01:06:35 PM
Quote from: Ibian on February 28, 2014, 12:57:15 PM
...
Prohibition. Most drinkers were hobbyholics, not hardened gangsters. Which is why everyone stopped drinking and the price dropped.

Only reason people pay lip service to the law is because we are threatened with jail if we don't. It is very easy to use bitcoin anonymously for those so inclined, and there will always be somewhere in the world where using them is fully legal for those not adverse to relocating. Imagine, living like a king somewhere in SE asia because people in other countries are making you rich by breaking the law. However things go, the next years will be fascinating.

Apples != oranges.  If bitcoin is booze, so is fiat.  Only fiat is legal booze.  Your analogy would be accurate if the prohibition banned gin, while everything else -- vodka, whiskey, saki, etc., remained legal.  If during such prohibition a thriving gin industry emerged, you'd have a point...
Actually, black markets exist for US dollars in countries that have banned them. So yeah, we are both talking apples. Or oranges if you prefer, Oranges are cool people with me.

If you wish to suggest that (black market $ volume) > (legitimate market $ value), I'm afraid I got nothing Cheesy
That's really quite irrelevant in this case. The value of black market dollars are higher than legal dollar markets. It will be the same with bitcoin if some countries ban it.

You are forgetting that price is directly influenced by demand.  If 99.9% of demand (all but those few backwater countries) vanishes, the price plummets.  Even on those black markets.
Not forgetting anything. The price is what it is because the demand is there. Which is to say, the demand for black market dollars is higher than the demand for legal dollars. Another factor is scarcity of supply in such situations.

With bitcoin, the countries with failing fiat economies are the most likely to ban it. Those are also the countries where people will be most desperate to find alternatives to hold their money over fiat. Reduced supply (only criminals have bitcoin) with rising (desperate) demand means the price will stay stable or go up. If it goes up it will spill over into the legal parts of the world in the form of arb. These are basic fundamentals.