I think Trump could take all 50 states, I really do.
I guess anything is possible - he'd have to use military force or find some other way to stop ~50 million Americans votes from counting though.
On the other hand, Trump has been front and center for months now, and it's not looking like that'll slow down any time soon. Love him or hate him, agree with his policies or not, he's been working his ass off to mitigate the damage of this pandemic. He has a free spot light, every day, for hours. Even his critics can't help but commend him. His Task Force team is mostly respected and revered, and even the Pence is looking like a better leader than Biden.
Faucci and Brixx, and most of the guys he brings into the briefings are great. The science community seems to agree that Fauci is one of if not the most qualified person in the world when it comes to infectious diseases. Pence also does a great job.
I watch a decent chunk of most of the briefings though, and when Trump is off script or taking questions, it's just a shit show. He regularly contradicts the experts about things they're experts in and just says the most mind blowingly stupid things - it's like he's torn between the corona hoaxers and science so he just bounces back and forth so that in the end he'll be able to claim victory no matter what. But yeah, it does seem to be working - but everything is so weird right now it's tough to figure out what the country is actually feeling.
I agree with you on Pence and Warren btw.