All those scenarios you laid out may have some merit to them, but it all boils down to the answer to the above--and yes, the coronavirus outbreak is basically the main cause for a lot of things lately, including bitcoin's price.  I don't think there's any good way to quantify the effects, but they're real nonetheless

I've always thought that there haven't been enough data points regarding the halvings and their influence on bitcoin's price.  It isn't as though there necessarily needs to be a correlation between the mining rewards and what the price has to be.  And in any event, I think the viral outbreak has overwhelmed most if not all of the gains bitcoin might have received because of the upcoming halving.

But we'll see.  That halving hasn't happened quite yet.