Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Oh look! Another covid thread.....
by
stompix
on 26/04/2020, 16:04:04 UTC
I guess it is not worth comparing China and Italy or Spain. The first ever COVID-19 case was in China. Where specifically in Wuhan it actually originated, I know not, but that type of corona virus was novel. It was not recorded in any book yet. Therefore, China was facing something new. It didn't have any clue at first. It had to familiarize itself with the enemy while already facing it.

Oh , really...
The first case, 1 December, nothing....doctors that dared to say anything were silenced, 30 December although they had hundred of cases they reported to the WHO there is no human to human transmission. 10 days later, they retracted that and said it is contagious.
Let's say all this is because it was something new, they didn't have a clue, but here is one that maybe will make you see things in a different way:

Quote
During the long period in between, Wuhan’s government was overly optimistic; the city held a potluck banquet to celebrate the looming New Year holiday, with more than 40,000 families attending, and issued 200,000 free travel tickets to the public, seeking to boost the tourism industry.

A nuclear catastrophe can't happen in the ...oh wait! A pandemic can't happen in glorious China under the supervision of the mighty communist party. Fixed! How to cancel a celebration in China, it would show weakness!!!!! And look were we are.

But it was certainly China's fault not heeding the very early warning raised by one of its doctors. It was even utter stupidity dismissing the legitimate warning as a mere case of rumour-mongering and worse even detaining him instead.

Oh, so if this bs wouldn't have happened in the first place there wouldn't have been any need for other measures to show how powerful and dedicated the CCP is.
Now back to the economic view, since we're in the Economic sections and not P&S

From the looks of it, a lot of countries are gonna shit on chinese markets and ask them to go fuck themselves. This could be a chance for something different to happen, as in inflated countries like Zimbabwe, Venezuela could come out on top as competitors for chinese markets, given enough capital.

Browsing through the news and reading the names of the ones impacted by this seems like China managed to shot itself in the foot, although with one nice ricochet.

There will be no de-chinafication, nothing on that scale will happen because countries will try to bribe the industry back to Europe and Us.
This is daydreaming, but something pretty interesting might come out of this whole mess.

During a crisis, the middle class is the one getting the short straw, and this is the main target of Chinese exports. The poor already don't have that money to spend, the luxury sector thrives even during these times as rich people losing half of their money means they can only buy 20 private jets, not 10 and most of their merchandise is not Chinese.
With demand for cheaper stuff, there will be demand for cheaper labor, Bangladesh is already closing in on garment exports competing with China, Malaysia is becoming a leader in rubber and latex products, they are already the largest condom and gloves manufacturers, they are producing tons of other petrochemical products, Vietnam is also producing a lot of stuff from cheap plastic items to clothes and shoes for western brands, and they all do it cheaper.  And then...there is India!!!

With the demand split between upper products and cheap as possible junk, China who has tried for years to position itself in the middle and trying to increase wages to stimulate internal consume might get caught on the wrong foot.

It won't be a case of patriotism or of racist thinking but more based on costs.
And for quite a few years China is not that attractive anymore, with even more pressure applied I can see their leaders banging their head against the GWC till it turns to ruble for how they handled this.