Plan B just tweeted this:
#Bitcoin stock-to-flow model on 2010-2012 data still usable in today. It predicted post-2012-halving and post-2016-halving levels quite well. Will it hold again, after May 2020 halving?Crossed fingers
No offense intended, by from my vantage point anyone who takes years prior to 2015 (not even speaking of 2010-2012) and says that their model works good on them too actually discredits the approach they are taking. In reference to Bitcoin, for early years one should use models and frameworks describing stochastic processes like random walk as Bitcoin's dynamic back in the day was completely chaotic and random
This is not to say that today's prices are not random for significant part, even though with more fundamental factors at play now
Why would they?
The model is co-integrated.
This means it is actually working, with those parameters, even if they are computed in such an early stage of bitcoin.
This means short terms fluctuations of BTC price around S2F model are possible, but statistically not significant.