==
The third thing I believe can make the price to increase are fomo people. They will see everyone investing and they will also invest for not to miss the great benefit.
We all know that big pumps don't happen instantly after halving. There is a long process until the market rises. Based on the previous two periods, the highest price is always formed a few months after halving. Market interest will increase based on this history because they don't want to miss the moment. While new entrants who are attracted by increased hysteria will go along, this will cause the market to become more attractive.
FOMO explain it alls and since the hype with bitcoin is good, we can expect a pump before and after the halving but for me thats not the real bull run because it will slowly fade away and back to a dump price. I also expect to see the real up trend a year after the halving, thats enough time for halving to take effect and we will see if the trend already change this time and a new history will begin.
It's better if you have graphic representation or even chart to help your prediction reliable. However, I am agree with your opinion. This maybe a bull trap. It can be a bullish but it never goes more than its ATH. Let us all wait for the bitcoin halving and just ride the train so that, even it does not reach its ath. You will take a profit. Best of luck!