Your third point does not always hold. A typical example of it is Cartesi.
Cartesi allocated 0.1% of the total supply for the bounty pool. Everyone expected that the price will be more than what it is today. Although it pumped, it plummeted by more than half of the ATH. Nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow.
I believe that the strategy they used was to limit the circulating supply and to prevent the sales by bounty hunters from causing so much dump. The hunters are yet to be paid, but the price... Hmmm.
All things being equal, if there is big news, things might get better.