I am not trying to believe what we have been told, nor disbelieve it. The objective here is to try to understand what could have happened and what could not have happened so as to be able to start to separate the lies from the half truths from the truths. The reality appears to be that there is a lot of speculation flying around and very little real verifiable information. We do not actually know with any degree of certainty whether Bitcoins were actually stolen, or whether keys were lost, or whether this whole mess is the result of a badly executed attempt at fraud, or something else entirely. Having a feel for what is actually possible might help to enable us to disregard some of the more wild speculation and maybe come to some understanding of what really happened.

And maybe to consider whether or not any exchange should be trusted with more than 1 Bitcoin.