Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Oh look! Another covid thread.....
by
exstasie
on 08/05/2020, 20:28:31 UTC
I get it, the usual life span of a vaccine that it gets started worked on and it takes at least one year, probably closer to 2 years to get it published, if it is a non-urgent one it takes as much as 5 years to get a release.

However this is an urgent thing that is literally the most important vaccine we would have in decades, I mean this is equal to finding a solution to AIDS

In the 1980s, US scientists promised we would have an HIV vaccine within two years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV_vaccine#Difficulties_in_development

Quote
In 1984, after the confirmation of the etiological agent of AIDS by scientists at the U.S. National Institutes of Health and the Pasteur Institute, the United States Health and Human Services Secretary Margaret Heckler declared that a vaccine would be available within two years.

Sound familiar? 36 years later, still nothing.

That's one reason we should be prepared for this to play out like the Spanish Flu, as a pandemic that surges in multiple waves over multiple years. One possibility is the virus will mutate into a less lethal strain over time, which is very common for pathogenic viruses. That's probably how the Spanish Flu pandemic ended: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#End_of_the_pandemic