New comment from masterluc -
May 8: In a case of new higher high (higher than 13 Feb 2020 ~ $10500) any bearish scenario will be invalidated.
Yes.. That has been the case for 3-6 months. 10500 was rejected twice and now forms the toughest resistance point.
10000 is also in the process of testing, and if it is rejected, then the bearish scenario is intact for some time.
10000 is technically the traders perfect shorting point, because there is another harder resistance just above. Whether it breaks or holds we will see.
Bears don't look impressive yet, but it's
possible we're slowly forming a multi-day top similar to August 2019 or February 2020.
Sentiment has turned strongly bullish with all the halving hype. Bitfinex longs outnumber shorts 4.66 to 1 now. Bitmex swaps are consistently holding above spot, the Fear & Greed index is showing "greed." I'm afraid to even predict a bearish outcome because going down feels impossible (a top indicator in and of itself).
I'm a big believer in maximum pain theory, and with sentiment this bullish, it's beginning to feel like the direction of maximum pain is down, not up.
I've closed my longs. Time to let the bulls and bears fight over $10K, and $10.5K. I want to be ready for a shakeout like June 2016, July 2017, September 2017, May 2019, etc. especially after 8 green weekly candles.