[I mostly agree with the scenarios depicted in the removed text]

What does this mean for Bitcoin?  I believe that Bitcoin is still predominantly driven by US retail demand.  I also believe that there is at least a 50/50 chance that the US economy will be fucked good between now and November.  The confounding factor is that the halvening will reduce supply by 50%.  Normally I would regard this as a sure thing, but it needs to be balanced against a possibly very sick US economy.  Further complicating matters, just about every other developed country in the world has managed to figure out how to beat the virus and will be back on the path to recovery behind locked borders.  People in those countries will be able to buy Bitcoin.  

My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020.  Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage).    So be defensive and don't hold [recently] open[ed] long positions past the halvening.  

Good luck and stay safe.