I am going to post something quite unpopular. It will make some people mad at me. This is not certain, but I would say it is a 50/50 probability right now. I sincerely hope I am wrong, but I am worry that I am not.
I have difficulties understanding how anyone can be mad at you for presenting a well-reasoned argument, even if some of us might not agree with some of your presumptions or conclusions... but in the end, you are making a lot of reasonable observations based on currently available information.
Sure, if it were to appear that you were merely spinning or talking your book or some bullshit like that, then that would be another story... There is no evidence to establish that you are doing any of those things.. at least so far I don't see any of that kind of evidence.
My conclusion is that we should not expect an ATH this year, and there is a 50% chance that we will not see the AYH again of $10,501 set in February 2020. Volatility will likely stay very high, which means the opportunity to profit from extreme swings and also opportunity to be liquidated if you are using anything other than very low leverage (less than 1x leverage). So be defensive and don't hold open long positions past the halvening.
I am a little bit unclear about what appears to be a couple of your points in the above paragraph, here.
First: In regards to your recommendation of NOT holding open long positions: Are you merely referring to not holding open leveraged longs or are you referring to closing all longs (which would mean selling all of your BTC)? Because there are a large number of members here who have been long as fuck in BTC, and mostly only play long in terms of accumulating BTC over a long period of time. In other words, DCAing, buying on dips and HODLing.. are proven sound strategies for largely playing the long game.. and with this approach, most longer term BTC holders strive to NOT give too many shits about the noises that might occur in shorter time periods, including the fact that either the four-year BTC price prediction fractal might not end up working out as hoped or the stock to flow model BTC price prediction model might be delayed by a few years..... or perhaps need to be otherwise tweaked in a downwards direction. In the end, these long accumulations are long term, so they do not get caught up in short term noise, even if the value of their portfolio might go down because the value of BTC goes down in the short term. You are not saying that regular longs (rather than leveraged ones) should sell, too, are you?
Second: This question might be a bit less serious, but still would be nice to get a response from you in terms of correction levels that you are anticipating.. or maybe you are largely just presuming flat, rather than up? Anyhow, I am not trying to pick on Mindrust, and of course, I do not wish anything badly upon mindrust on a personal level, but he is a very good example of recent happenings. Accordingly, are you speculating that either mindrust will be able to buy back his BTC at a profit or maybe alternatively that he might be able to significantly mitigate his losses which might mean buying back his BTC in the sub $6k arena?
**Remember, for clarity sake, that Mindrust sold all 10 of his BTC in about the mid $4ks, and according to his latest report, he has ONLY been DCA-ing into bitcoin at about $50 per week (for the sake of the sanity of topic clarity in this thread, we will ignore whatever his dumbass injections of value may have been or continue to be into various shitcoins).