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I agree with almost all of that. The only thing I would say is wrong is what happens when the economy gets refucked. The end game for the current financial system should have been a decade away at least, but once the cascading defaults begin, there will be two options. Massive deflation, on a scale never before seen as the debt unwinds through default, or massive inflation as all the debt is printed to oblivion to avoid the deflation scenario. The people making the decisions know they are going to have to destroy both the dollar and the current monetary system. They all wish they could have kicked the can a little bit further so it was the next person who had to deal with it. But COVID has bought the whole clusterfuck to a head. Bitcoin will soar against a dollar that destroys itself, because it must be destroyed. The deflation scenario will be too terrifying for those in charge to contemplate. They will see their heads on spikes. Things are going to get very weird I think, it will probably be good for bitcoin, but it will be really fucked up in so many other ways we may not care as much as we think we will.
Maybe clarification from you might be helpful, too, random_australian.
I really despise putting too much weight on Armageddon scenarios, even though various aspects of the current path seems to be striving in that direction... whether purposeful or incidental.
So, it is not that I disagree with you, random_australian, but in my experience, it seems to have been a lot more healthy to attempt to figure out more likely scenarios rather than putting too much weight on Armageddon scenarios, even though we cannot completely ignore Armageddon scenarios when they have gone from less than 1% odds to something closer to 5% to 8%, which is nothing to sneeze at, but still does not mean that we should be putting more than 10% efforts/preparations into scenarios that still seem to be having less than 8% odds, right?