The price is now on the rise and I think it will still move upwards. The key factor is certainly a close reduction in the reward for a new block of bitcoin. After reducing the reward, the price may go down, but I do not think that it will fall significantly.
Your analysis is fine too . When the reward for the new block come, it is expected to have a slight drop in price. The price can fall afterwards but it may not stay long because more investors will come in to buy more and the price can start appreciating again.