Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.
OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.
Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.
As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.
At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus. We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total. Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours.
The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice. Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders. Many other European countries will also be in the same position.
Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead. You can keep your liberties.
On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash. It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try
I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon.
There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon.
Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine.
It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country.
It opens up, infections would go up.
I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't.
It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders.
Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside.
The problem is that the places with the most infected persons are still far away from herd immunity, so there is no real advantage gained by having suffered big losses already. And as time passes, even if we don't have a vaccine, we still are better prepared, there are now promising drug combinations, doctors know better how to judge if ventilation is needed, etc. We also know who is most at risk so these people know what to do if they want to survive.