Surrender to the virus and you also surrender your economy.
OTOH, surrender your liberties and you also surrender to tyranny.
Incidentally, I don't doubt your rather rational conclusions about the effect of what you term 'opening early', as far as epidemiology goes. I just don't agree that the government of a free society has a legitimate authority to order the populace to stay in their cages.
As far as the effect upon Bitcoin, I'm not seeing such a causative factor.
At the risk of hubris, Australia is on the edge of eliminating the virus. We have 10% of the population of the USA and 97 deaths total. Our death rate is roughly one-thousandth yours.
The only difference is that our leaders (despite their other faults) listened to the medical advice. Within 2 months we should, fingers crossed, have a completely open and fully functional economy with no virus behind our sealed borders. Many other European countries will also be in the same position.
Meanwhile the US will lurch from crisis to crisis over the next six months, with hundreds of thousands and possibly millions dead. You can keep your liberties.
On Bitcoin, I suggest it is only a 50% chance that it will trigger another significant crash. It is really hard to tie the real economy to Bitcoin, and question the extent we should try
I wish your country well, but I don't believe in miracles. All what you did is to postpone, UNLESS there is a functional vaccine soon.
There are lots of theoretical studies about this postponement phenomenon.
Then, maybe, you will get lucky with an early vaccine.
It is otherwise not possible to keep below 7k infections in a 30 mil population size country.
It opens up, infections would go up.
I understand the partial way-stay open when you can, close when you can't.
It is messy, but around here people already started to ignore orders.
Mask coverage dipped lately to 20% from 60% on the residential street, although we are still under "orders" to keep them on when outside.
Excluding New South Wales and Victoria, both of which have an active cluster, not one Australian state recorded a new case yesterday despite very high rates of testing. State borders are closed.
Elimination behind sealed borders is a real possibility. *If* that is achieved, then many would be happy to wait out the pandemic behind sealed borders. You can postpone it forever if you don’t let it in. The virus can only come in, if you let it in.
We do have a problem with NSW lifting its restrictions too early but other States will keep their borders sealed against NSW while they sort themselves out.
I say this with caution because we could easily screw this up yet.