In all honesty you really have to think like a whale. What do whales want to do when there is increases demand in Bitcoin? They want to liquidate. The best time to turn btc into cash is when there is a huge demand in btc, because the price will always go back up.

After the halving my prediction is that whales will want to accumulate more bitcoin and one way for them to do this  is by dropping the price after the halving. What does dropping the price do? It enables them to accumulate even more bitcoin. After the halving, the whales are going to try and shake off the small miners. They will do this by making sure the price does not reach 2X in the short term. My opinion is that they will drop the price in the 4500-6500 range after the halving. By doing this, all the small miners MUST cash out to cover electricity costs.