Yes experience and skills are important but luck is too important. I mean luck to identify cool project, take a risk, believe on team. There was with ETH when it was just beginning
Luck is not the most important and not the best criterion for a project. There are too many projects on the market that appeared at the right time and in the right place, so they successfully managed to enter the market without any problems, but they have no future. They slowly fade into the background and die off.