True, warm bodies have been kept distanced, away from each other, etc and the numbers are going down. More in countries that did this well, less in countries that did not do this well. "Herd" immunity works when the herd is being careful.
Now we get to see what happens when you re-add bodies to the pool.
I have a feeling I know which way this is going to go, when you tamp down a fire to coals and then pour gasoline on the coals you get a predictable response. But hey, maybe "this time it will be different"....
Let's check back in 2 months. Place your bets folks, just remember that chip you're betting with is your life.