If price goes up, there will be good and bad things too. I think bad things will be more. I don't know what happened in the previous halving but surely due to demand and supply many sold their bitcoins and many miners sold/got rid of their equipment.
Imagine that in some years only ~50 bitcoins will be bornt every day. Miners will not afford mining cost EXCEPT if bitcoin price will rise above 50.000$
So in a few words only if miners can afford from their rewarded BTC, the mining cost. Only then bitcoin will survive. Due to halving, price will rise because if a miner finds pricy his equipment now, then he will retire 4 years later.
Will miners that will mine blocks in the year 2136, be happy with their tiny reward + fees? If they can mine, it means that they will afford the electricity meaning: 1 satoshi will be much more expensive than now.
But if price will rise then we should all go and buy a bitcoin right now? Hmm? I think this is a paradox.
Umm... BlackHatCoiner, why that title?
Well I believe that Satoshi hadn't thought that many would see bitcoin as an investment and not as a coin, and that mining will not be beneficial except if price goes up. But if price goes up then we should all go and by one BTC right now, but if we all go and buy one then price will go down and miners will not afford it. And it seems like a circle to me.
I find very likely bitcoin price to get increased over time. But shhh, i don't want anyone to find it out
Your thoughts, correct me if you think I was somewhere wrong.
There is something interesting here. Although you know so much about Bitcoin, you said you didn't know what happened during the previous halving.
Anyway, you can see what's happening before;
https://www.bitconsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/twitter-1-1024x576.png
In general, it seems that there is a share of accuracy in your evaluations. Until mining rewards are over, Bitcoin awareness needs to increase even more. Or there must be something different that will attract people's attention.
But there is something you missed. All your evaluations are based on today's conditions. In other words, factors such as higher performance and cheaper state of mining equipment in the future are not in your theory. While evaluating here, we cannot act with the principle of "ceteris paribus" from an economic point of view. So when we say other conditions are fixed, it is very likely that the predictions will be wrong for the future.