Post
Topic
Board Economics
Re: Probability problem heads or tails ...
by
spy100
on 18/05/2020, 20:32:32 UTC
If i flip a coin 10 times, what is the probability of getting heads on the 10th flip ? or on the second flip ? what is the math formula  ?



Each coin flip is independent. Flipping one coin 10 times is the same as flipping 10 different coins at the same time and looking at all of the results. We know that a single coin will land on heads 50% of the time and tails on the other 50%. That's for 1 coin flip. Now, as we said before, each coin flip is independent of each other. That means, the second, third, fourth, etc. coin has the same chance as the first to be either heads or tails.

The 1st coin flip is 50%, the second is 50% and the tenth is also 50%. It's all the same as one single coin flip.


it shore looks like that but something is not logical


 bet 1   | $2
 bet 2   | $4
 bet 3   | $8
 bet 4   | $16
 bet 5   | $32
 bet 6   | $64
 bet 7   | $128
 bet 8   | $256
 bet 9   | $512
 bet 10 | $1024


On a 10 bets game like this you can win $1024 or lose your $1

So it does not make sense that each event is independent ... and last bet probability of getting heads is 50%

My instinct / gut is telling me that 50% chance for last bet is false ...