You are right no doubt but there is something they call FOMO (fear of missing out) that comes into your mind when you are in the market. It might actually never come back to the price you are seeing it.
Fomo is a very big tool that you need to have under control.
All of your thoughts are right but we can't control fomo. Either, we need to understand it because it's not like a TA (Technical Analysis) or FA (Fundamental Analysis). So we always need to cross-check anythings and must be a well-educated about crypto-currency/trading, the news is true or just a fud like you said .

Ethershift has already dumped more than 50% from its weekly ATH and that has already proven if FOMO will be running until the whale who pumping it will be feeling bored with the market. You can't control FOMO but you can short it.