A very interesting research.
But to express my guess, I think Satoshi would use his Bitcoins for charity at most! (if he still has control over it)
I don't think Satoshi would want to harm his work in the slightest.
I would speculate on an early adopter of the first hours.
The field can definitely be narrowed down, but I don't think anyone can tell for sure who made this transaction! Unless the sender reveals himself...
But even this mere speculation about this is fun!