TBH , I've read endless analysis on this subject for months (as have a large % of the world's population) and it seems to me there will never be a definitive answer on whether the total life damage/years lost will be worse or better under various 'remedies'.

Each country in the world has its own peculiarities , to do with culture, population density, mobility, demographic and vulnerabilty. Add to that political and social agendas, and most statistics cannot be compared. The same may well be true in different states of the USA.

Unfortunate as it seems, any action taken may make little difference to the overall long term outcome.