$40k per coin is BS and the $40 per coin is also BS.
This.
Both numbers have less than 5% probability of happening.
Realistically, 2-3k is possible in 2014, 5k if very lucky.
The problem with bitcoin is, that it follows no standard normal distribution as of now. Many fat-tail events/outcomes make a lot of noise. So it is very difficult to pin probabilities to certain outcomes.