The plot does not take into consideration the DP overhead.
In his first try, zielar had a setup which create a very large overhead (too much kangaroos). An overhead more than 2 times bigger than the expected number of op, so he didn't manage to get something.
I helped him a bit yesterday to have a clean setup.
If all is going well, he will reach 50% probability Saturday evening.
Unfortunately no news from him since yesterday